Police and Civilian Outcomes of Threatening Encounters (PACOTE), 2015
In 2015, 1,145 civilians were killed by police officers. In a criminal justice system already fraught with racial, gender, and class bias, it is unclear whether these fatal police shootings were predictable outcomes of the current criminal justice system or if there is something more systemic happening during the threatening interaction between police officers and civilians. Our team seeks to understand the broader context of threatening encounters between police and civilians and the sequence of policing events that lead to fatal and nonfatal outcomes. Our goal is to analyze organizational effects, spatial effects, sequence effects, dyadic effects, and racial, gender, and class bias in police shootings in the United States in order to contribute to a national conversation that currently has very little empirical evidence.
To date no research has controlled for the threatening interaction between police and civilians required to identify which mechanisms occurring during an interaction lead to fatal or nonfatal outcomes. This project, Police and Civilian Outcomes of Threatening Events (PACOTE), achieves an analysis of interactions through a new in-progress database compiled from data collected every 24 hours of all online news reports on threatening events between police officers and civilians in the year 2015.
Building off of police shooting data collection efforts–such as the British newspaper The Guardian’s database, The Counted–our team is creating a database that includes detailed information on fatal police shootings and comparative cases of nonfatal police shootings. We are in the process of organizing and coding 11,638 news articles collected from a daily news search conducted every 24 hours in 2015. To date, we have identified 2,782 threatening events between police officers and civilians across 2015, and we have coded 1,381 threatening events that resulted fatally and nonfatally from January 2015 to early April 2015. Most police encounters do not result in fatalities, and upon the completion of this database we will have a better understanding of why particular police encounters do.
PACOTE Preliminary Findings
We still have a lot of work to do on the PACOTE Database before our results will be ready for peer review and publication. But we have begun analyzing the first quarter of pilot data from PACOTE to examine the role of race across similar events but with divergent outcomes. New to the research on police violence, our current estimates show that about half of threatening events between police and civilians in our sample end with police violence directed at the civilian and about 18% end with fatal police violence.
Even though more white civilians were fatally killed by police in 2015, we find that when black civilians had threatening interactions with police, the outcomes were more likely to end in violence than in non violence compared to whites and Hispanics.
Progress on the PACOTE Database
Quarter 1 2015 (completed)
|Quarter 2 2015
|Quarter 3 2015
|Quarter 4 2015
|# of threatening events||1,261||663||514||344|
|% of events that ended in violence against civilians||46.6%|
|% of events that ended in civilian fatalities||17.8%|
|Table last updated||02/24/2017|
Thompson, Matthew J., and Chris M. Smith. 2017. “Citizen Science and Crowdsourced Data Collection, not Government Statistics, Provide the Most Reliable Count of Citizen Fatalities by Police.” The London School of Economics Public Policy Group. USAPP American Politics and Policy Blog, May 5.
Sociology Toolbox, 2016
Other Databases on Police Violence
Fatal Encounters by D. Brian Burghart
Fatal Force by The Washington Post
Florida Officer-Involved Shootings 2013-2014 by The Daytona Beach News Journal
Public Safety Open Data Portal by The Police Foundation
The Police Foundation currently hosts data from President Obama’s Police Data Initiative (PDI) through their Public Safety Open Data Portal.
The Counted by The Guardian
US Police Shootings Database by Sean McElwee
New Research on Police Violence
Banks, Duren, Paul Ruddle, Erin Kennedy, and Michael G. Planty. 2016. “Arrest-Related Deaths Program Redesign Study, 2015–16: Preliminary Findings.” NCJ 250112. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Duran, Robert J. 2016. “No Justice, No Peace: Examining Controversial Officer Involved Shootings.” Du Bois Review 13(1):61-83.
Fryer, Roland G. 2016. “An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 22399.
Kramer, Rory, Brianna Remster, and Camille Z. Charles. 2017. “Black Lives and Police Tactics Matter.” Contexts 16(3):20-25.
Legewie, Joscha, and Jeffrey Fagan. 2016. “Group Threat, Police Officer Diversity and the Deadly Use of Police Force.” Working paper. Columbia Law School Public & Legal Theory Working Paper Group. Retrieved August 1, 2016
Nix, Justin, Bradley A. Campbell, Edward H. Byers, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. 2017. “A Bird’s Eye View of Civilians Killed by Police in 2015: Further Evidence of Implicit Bias.” Criminology & Public Policy 16(1):309-40.
Ross, Cody. 2015. “A Multi-Level Bayesian Analysis of Racial Bias in Police Shootings at the County-Level in the United States, 2011-2014.” PLos ONE 10(11).
Zimring, Franklin E. 2017. When Police Kill. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
The PACOTE Team
Former members of the research team include:
Jui Apte, Research Assistant
Mattias Arnesson, Research Assistant
Zenjief Del Castillo, Research Assistant
Cat Gilbert, Research Assistant
Jesse Gilgoff, Research Assistant
Erica Haviland, Research Assistant
Mallory Houston, Research Assistant
Chihta Hsieh, Research Assistant
Jenny Li, Research Assistant
Catherine Ramos, Research Assistant
Timothy Sullivan, Research Assistant
Kevin Tamaki, Research Assistant
Liann Tucker, Research Assistant
Members of the UC Davis PACOTE team, fall 2016.
Members of the UC Davis research team, spring 2016.
The UC Davis research team building the PACOTE Database, March 2016.